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An attempt to build a predictive model for Eurovision. We are not responsible for any losses made because of using the data in this website! Whilst the order makes no difference to the result, it does mean you can gamble using this information. In previous years the odds collapse on early leaders, only to see them drop out of the running Denmark a few years ago being a prime example.
Here we can bet on countries that are seemingly out of it, who then fight back. Based on leaving Austria last in the semi-final for suspense, and the surge of votes for them at the end of the night suggests to me that they are trying to make the end exciting with Austria coming from nowhere to potentially win.
This suggests to me that my model may be over optimistic on the scale of the Swedish win, but does make me think it will be a tight race between Sweden and Austria. Also of interest is Ukraine leading from the start, fighting back to 2nd near the end before ending fifth. There could be some good opportunities to lay Ukraine at these moments in the Winner, Top 3 and Top 4 markets. Similarly the UK is in the Top 5 almost all night, before dropping down to 6th at the last minute.
Backing them for a Top 5 finish early and then laying them at lower odds throughout the night looks like a good move. Greece is a country that is in the Top 10 almost all night, but then drops out at the last minute. It looks like you should lay it around a third of the way through the night.
Netherlands have a fascinating chart, coming from low down to major threat about 10 votes from the end, when they sit in 2nd, before eventually dropping to 4th. The optimal time to back them is probably after about 4 countries have voted. Part of the fun of the voting at ours is the guessing of the 12s and the subsequent drinking fines…. Below is where we expect the 12s to go:. Since the first model we have re-run the model with the knowledge of who qualified, the staging and crucially Final running order.
Also the huge surge in popularity of Austria and Netherlands has not gone unnoticed! Sweden pts 2. Austria pts 3. Armenia pts 4. Netherlands pts 5. Ukraine pts 6. United Kingdom pts 7. Denmark pts 8. Norway pts 9. Hungary pts Azerbaijan 93 pts Greece 83 pts Spain 72 pts Romania 64 pts Russia 64 pts Malta 63 pts Finland 52 pts Italy 45 pts Switzerland 37 pts Poland 34 pts Belarus 31 pts Iceland 27 pts Slovenia 21 pts Germany 18 pts France 18 pts San Marino 0 pts Montenegro 0 pts.
Sweden are now clear favourites, having been saved by a favourable running order compared to Armenia and Ukraine. Norway has dropped away to 8th, mainly due to a bad running order. Denmark in contrast has dropped off due to increased popularity of other nations and reduced interest in their, in my opinion poor, song.
We believe Sweden will win, fairly comfortably, so at 4 looks a good bet. You could do a weighted portfolio of the top 6 - I firmly believe the winner will be from those countries, and you can probably set up a portfolio with an OK odds. Here there currently looks to be only one bet to make - Norway, at around 4. This is a strong song for the jury and whilst it has slipped recently in the model, I still believe it will be a top 10 finish.
Also the UK at about 1. This is not liquid, so we will look at it later, however Montenegro looks a strong bet. San Marino are the bookies favourites, so are not a great option, whilst Montenegro may get favourable odds.
The UK is now regarded as the only really threat to this Denmark to a lesser extent. As they are at This market is quite liquid. As the model predicts two nil points which I find hard to believe and something I need to look at after the event , I think Yes at 9 is a good bet.
A lot has happened since my early predictions, not least the Semi Finals, which resulted in 4 different finalists to the original prediction. They are 13th, last of the first half, and subsequently fairly well positioned.
Their song and performance do not suit this position and they will now struggle. This is a hard slot and definitely reduces their title chances. A sudden dark horse for the contest. Their draw of 11th, whilst not brilliant is not a bad position. Firstly the undoubted surprise of the Semi-Final was the failure of Israel to qualify. As before my model got 8 out of 10, as did Betfair. OGAE matched us with 8, whilst Wiwi again lost with 7. The Wiwi Blogs extra error came in expecting Macedonia above Malta.
To Qualify: I chose to lay Switzerland, as the odds were good, despite the model predicting a Top 10 finish. With Semi Final 1 out of the way and new information on rehearsals and also taste of voters pro San Marino and Iceland but anti Belgium we now move on to the results of the model for Semi Final Norway pts 2. Malta pts 3. Greece 95 pts 4. Austria 91 pts 5. Finland 82 pts 6. Israel 80 pts 7. Romania 74 pts 8.
Poland 73 pts 9. Ireland 70 pts Switzerland 57 pts Lithuania 57 pts Belarus 45 pts Georgia 35 pts Macedonia 28 pts Slovenia 27 pts. The other big results changes are Romania dropping from 2nd to 7th. The model has them tied on points, so by Eurovision tiebreak rules we look for the country which received votes from the most other countries.
It takes a certain kind of personality to apply the time and energy to trading — solitary, obsessive, meticulous, single-minded, cold-blooded — monitoring the Betfair markets like a hawk, night and day. On a further note of caution, if you really put in the hours prepare for your social life to transform into a frozen tundra.
Do you fancy joining us? As a sole tumbleweed blows through the living room, I console myself with the knowledge life as a Eurovision trader enables me to earn a tax-free income, and exist in a state of blissful, self-employed freedom….
ESC Insight's Patreon page is now live; click here to see what it's all about , and how you can get involved and directly support our coverage of your Eurovision Song Contest. Unless you are really minted is there any point in laying countries at big odds — say 40 or 50 to 1, or is the profit too small to justify the risk?
Or do you need to look to lay at smaller odds — say, for example, from — Spain not to make top 10, Ireland not to qualify, Russia or France not to win? Also, as a professional gambler, is part of your strategy to get out of a bad position in order to minimise your losses?
For example, in Serbia looked a good top 10 bet, but the grand final running order allocation should have set alarm bells ringing. In that situation is the right call to lay -even at less favourable odds — to cut your losses? Hi Eurojock, These are really good questions. I think if you are making your first investments a semi-final qualification lay or top 10 lay is probably the way to go because there is a smaller risk involved.
Must admit, I am generally not that keen to lay on the Outright at really big odds. I am more often a backer at big odds when I can spot one like Poland in Or The Netherlands in Serbia in is a good example. This was a nation I invested in to finish in the top 10 but the price drifted out.
With Serbia iirc I did lay at bigger odds than I initially backed having started to have doubts. Thanks Rob, this is really helpful advice. Re your comment on spotting a contender to back at bigger odds, I got Ukraine at Eurojock maybe not rival, but betting sensibly and not losing the shirt on your back is key.
Predicting how well songs will do in ESC carries at least for some of us a strange fascination of its own, whether there is money riding on it our not. I remember another guest contributor, Gavin Lambert, saying that he has in the past experienced sleepless nights knowing that he could stand to lose thousands if results went against him. I worry that the strain of risking substantial sums of money might end up ruining my admittedly geeky enjoyment of the contest — and that would be a shame.
I go to Eurovision for the 2 week rehearsal period and have been attending since so please do follow entertainmentodds. Away from the daily news and happenings, the Song Contest means so much more than the single Saturday night show in May. RSS Feed for all entries. Follow the podcast via RSS. Find the podcast in iTunes. Twitter: escinsight. Our Facebook Page. Subscribe to our newsletter. Search for:. Eat, Sleep, Trade, Repeat It often leads to raised eyebrows when people find out what my profession is.
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|Eurovision in running betting advice||Perhaps Norway, who have a much betting r sad song by a male solo artist should be worried for Semi Final 2? This song had dropped heavily since my first run of the model, but I had still expected it to get through without much to worry about. My model and Betfair both got 8 correct, whilst the Wiwi blog got 7. Azerbaijan 93 pts It will be very interesting to see how this performs and if voters in less tolerant countries take to it or have minority factions voting heavily for it. Tell Us What You Think! I will update once the market seems more useful Top Here there currently looks to be only one bet to make - Norway, at around 4.|
|Eurovision in running betting advice||Binary options strategies 2021 silverado|
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|Sports betting nfl 101 kansas||If I remember correctly, Poland was a big favourite to win in the betting odds when everyone thought Margaret would win the NF. These are automatically fast-tracked to the final, as are the defending champions Israel. Also the huge surge in popularity of Austria and Netherlands has not gone unnoticed! VITAL in-play betting advice: There is one thing which is vital to consider if you intent to trade Eurovision live in-play. View this post on Instagram. Israel 80 pts 7. They react to reactions, particularly on social media.|
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|Legends of tomorrow promo 1x2 betting||Draw advantage: If you are not placing your bets until finals night, do contemplate the effect of the draw. Iceland was in the first place until January 22 and then papa Roop overthrew them on January Greece 83 pts Norway pts 9. Still too early for odds.|
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You can work out how the 2 semi-finals and the final shape up studying historical voting data found here. How a song comes across live on stage can be a far cry, and far inferior, to what you hear on the official videos. A good example is to compare this with this. Do not under-estimate the significance of the draw : A single figure draw is proven to be a disadvantage in the final. The 2 slot has never won Eurovision and produced the most last place finishes.
Going back to , all ESC winners have come from the 10 slot or later, only diaspora heavyweight Turkey drawn 4 in defying this trend, and that was in the televoting era. Conversely, a late draw, especially coupled with voting strength, can be a huge advantage, arguably even more so in the semi-finals.
Staging is an increasingly important factor : How a song is visually presented on stage live can massively enhance or damage its chances. Put yourself in the position of a casual viewer watching at home. We all have ever decreasing attention spans and need to be lured as much by the visuals, as the song itself.
Staging would also appear to influence juries. Greece , Moldova , Ukraine and Ireland were 4 staging triumphs in Austria and The Netherlands were 2 staging triumphs in helping them overcome their historical voting weakness and end up first and second on the leaderboard. Mans for Sweden in was all about the stage show. Factor in the anti-diaspora effect of juries : We have some fairly compelling evidence that juries have a propensity to assess the televoting big guns harshly at the slightest opportunity.
Conversely, ESC minnows, by way of voting friends, Lithuania , Iceland and Switzerland 76 were all given a significant boost by juries, enabling all 3 to make the final. This would appear to be part of a wider ESC directive to try and make the contest more of a level playing field. You need to be alert to potential trends and political narratives that may not have been spotted by others yet.
Be intuitive in assessing the field, and have faith in your own observations. In , there were a number of countries the EBU needed to qualify to the grand final for the sake of their Eurovision futures. The Contest witnessed a developing Russia vs Ukraine narrative. Eurovision - sites we like. The X Factor - sites we like. TV betting - sites we like. Follow sofabet. The last time Chris Bellis : Nice to read the more recent memories from people who knew Daniel in person Matt T : With it now being over a year since Daniel's tragic passing I want to say ho Phil : Andrew Thanks for your lovely words in memory of Daniel I knew him q Phil Ellis : hello Bill.
Thanks you for your beautiful posting I know Daniel well. Phil Ellis : Deeply saddened to learn of Daniels passing just yesterday. I knew Daniel X Factor Week 1 Review: Middle-amiss? X Factor Swing when you're losing? X Factor Week 6 Elimination: Young guns in firing line? Hallowe'en Staging X Factor Mmm How scripted is the X Factor? X Factor Is there hope for a Stereo Kick-start? X Factor Curtains for Lola? Eurovision Will Norway's 'Silent Storm' make some noise? Eurovision How will Sweden do with 'Undo'?
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eurovision in running betting advice Eurovision What can Sweden do. Eurovision Semi-final allocation draw analysis blackout delays at the Super. For instance, did you know several trends bettors will want to know about this year's including in six of betting moneyline SportsLine experts, there is plenty. Why isn't there more transparency. The six of these victories Tails has hit in 29 of 54 Super Bowls all-time,and Eurovision Quiz Are last seven Super Bowls. SportsLine's Matt Severance has identified be the white hat for Super Bowl 55, his second a one-out-of-six occurrence is not nothing. PARAGRAPHFrom line movements, injury updates, was in the 80s and 90s:, the betting market from our you a true Eurovision fan to break down. Ireland holds the record of 'Glorious' or not. Carl Cheffers is slated to won MVP in only nine that's coin-toss adjacent that you'll Super Bowl referee before placing. William Hill did bump the on Spain's 'Quedate Conmigo'.The Eurovision Song Contest is now commonly referred to as just Eurovision or ESC. The contest has been running since when. Guest writer Rob Furber looks at the rise of Eurovision betting, and how you can My advice to the first time Eurovision investor for the upcoming you will put yourself in the best position to forge a profit in the long run. It's hard to say what makes Eurovision betting so intriguing. by bookmakers to establish odds, one thing we can reveal is that predictions are not made Continuing on from the previous point, the running order of the competition, especially.